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Michael Kramer
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Michael Kramer's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Kramer's articles, including current analysis & opinion.
A complete archive of Michael Kramer's articles, including current analysis & opinion.
S&P 500: Market Rally Faces Challenges from Liquidity Drain and VIX Opex
By Michael Kramer - Apr 15, 2026
The stock market has had an impressive move, but time may be running out. The most pressing issue is that today is tax day, which means the Treasury General Account (TGA) is likely to rise...
There are many things happening at once, which is creating a fair amount of confusion in the market. As I noted around 6 or 7 AM ET, it was clear that even with oil up roughly 6–7%, the credit...
The VIX is called the “fear gauge.” But it is often a gauge of suppression, not fear — and understanding the difference can change how you read every market move.What Is the...
The S&P 500 drops 2% with no headline. Or it grinds higher for a week while the news is bad. Most investors blame algos or randomness. There is a better explanation — and it is hiding in the...
The peace talks with Iran seemed to have ended on a sour note, sending IG weekend oil prices higher by around 4% and the IG US Tech 100 lower by more than 1%. Clearly, the market was betting on a...
The S&P 500 rose by around 70 bps on Wednesday. The key takeaway is that the index cleared resistance at the 10-day exponential moving average. The negative, however, is that it failed at the...
The S&P 500 finished higher on Tuesday by nearly 3%—a sharp move. The drivers are hard to isolate, but quarter-end rebalancing, the JPM collar dynamics, and a $4 billion buy imbalance...
The S&P 500 finished lower on Monday by approximately 40 bps, despite starting up nearly 80 bps. The index was driven higher early by a sharp volatility reset, with the VIX 1-day falling from a...
Key Takeaways:
Financial Conditions Are Tightening Across the Board: Rising oil prices are driving inflation expectations higher, strengthening the US dollar, pushing rates up, and pressuring risk...
Stocks Week Ahead: Heavy Data Calendar Meets Rising Oil and Market Volatility
By Michael Kramer - Mar 30, 2026
A busy week lies ahead, with economic data starting on Tuesday with the JOLTS report, followed on Wednesday by the ISM and ADP reports, and concluding on Friday with the jobs report. The only problem,...